Dustin Ackley or Jesus Montero Should be Extended

Seattle Mariners Blog:

Dustin Ackley and/or Jesus Montero need to be extended by the Seattle Mariners. The Tampa Bay Rays have been a powerhouse out of the AL East for the past four seasons. They made the playoffs three times and even won the AL East twice. That’s no easy task, especially when two of the four teams they are up against are the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. The Rays weren’t always this good. They stunk for a long time and received a lot of high draft picks because of this. A lot of the success has came from the work that has been done under general manager Andrew Friedman, a man who many believe is one of the best baseball executives. The Rays don’t exactly have a lot of money, so they have to spend what they do have wisely.

One of the smartest moves that the team has made was signing Evan Longoria to a long term contract after only six major league games to his name. Six games, and he was signed to a six year, $17.5MM contact. They bought out his three arbitration years, and got themselves three very reasonable options on his first three free agents years — $7.5MM, $11MM and $11.5MM. The Rays have paid him about $10MM for his 24.1 WAR so far, or 2.41 WAR per million. If he sustains his average rate of 6 WAR per season, they’ll get about three-fourths of a WAR per million. That’s pretty good. For contrast, Alex Rodriguez has given the Yankees 0.12 wins above replacement per million dollar he’s been paid over the past four seasons.

The Rays haven’t stopped there, though. After the 2010 season, Wade Davis had started 35 games and posted 2.1 WAR with a 4.01 ERA. Two wins above replacement and a solid ERA. They decided to extend him for cheap, buying out his arbitration years in 2012, 2013 and 2014, while giving them three friendly options for 2015-2017. Wade Davis regressed a bit last year, only posting 0.2 WAR, but even if this deal is a dud, I think it was a pretty good deal. They bought out his arbitration years at $1.5MM, $2.8MM and $4.8MM. A starter who pitches 180+ innings, lIke Davis did last year, with any amount of success, like Davis has had, is likely to make around as much as they paid him in arbitration. For example, Jason Vargas got almost the exact same salary in his last arbitration year that Davis will have in his, and Vargas is about a 2.5 WAR pitcher. And if he has some more solid seasons, then they got a great deal and have a pitcher with very affordable and very tradeable options. Simply put — it was a good move.

Their most recent extension would have to be that of Matt Moore. Yeah, the guy who shut down the Rangers in the post season and the one who was just ranked as the number one prospect in baseball by MLB.com. They’ll be paying Moore more than the league minimum ($1MM) for the first three years of the contract. Then, after that, he is guaranteed $3MM and $5MM over the next two years. If you’re keeping tally, that is $11MM. For five seasons of Matt Moore. If that wasn’t enough, they managed to sneak in $7MM, $9MM and $10MM options. So, if he pitches to potential, they will get eight years of Matt Moore for $37MM (or $37.5 with incentives), or an average annual salary of $4.625MM. Bravo, Tampa Bay. Bravo.

here are more examples, like B.J. Uption and James Shields, but that’s exactly my point. The Rays are willing to extend their young players, and what’s happening? They’re winning divisions and wild cards while only spending half of the money the Mariners are. Why does this matter? The Rays stunk for awhile, just like the Mariners have, and built their playoff team that they have now through the draft just like the Mariners have. The main difference is that the Mariners haven’t signed any smart contract extensions with their young players. The main reason for that before was that their drafting wasn’t working out too well, and not too many prospects were panning out. The Seattle Mariners have a three guys who were ranked in the top 18 prospects this year by MLB.com and another player who was ranked in the top 15 last year. I’m talking about Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. Let’s put Walker on the back burner, because he’s at least a year or two away. Let’s also give Danny Hultzen a breather — he hasn’t pitched in spring training or the minor leagues yet. Plus, pitchers are more of a liability than young bats. Let’s talk about Dustin Ackley. He was drafted second overall in the 2009 draft and was given a healthy $6MM signing bonus. The guy’s bat oozes excellence, and I think everyone knows that he’s going to be an amazing player.

Why Mariners should extend Dustin Ackley

He’s already posted over 2.5 WAR in his first 90 games. FanGraphs thinks that he was good enough for 2.7 WAR, and over the course of 160 games, that total would have ran to 4.22 WAR. The second basemen who posted a higher WAR than 4.0 last year were Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Howie Kendrick and Robinson Cano. However, Dustin Ackley was only a rookie last year when he posted his 2.7 WAR in 90 games, so we should compare Dustin Ackley to the premiere second basemen when they were rookies. Cano only posted 0.3 WAR over his first 132 games. Kendrick only posted 0.7 over his first 72 games. Brandon Phillips actually posted -0.3 WAR in his first 123 games and Zobrist was even worse at -2 WAR over his first 83 games. Kinsler and Pedroia are the only ones who even got close to Dustin Ackley’s 2.7 over his first 90 games — and they were still pretty far away. Kinsler recorded 1.3 in 120 games while Pedroia reached the exact same 2.7 mark at 170 games — almost double as many games as it took Dustin Ackley. Dustin Ackley is very far ahead of where all of the current premier second basemen were at the beginning of their careers. All of them actually started out pretty crummy before getting better, and should Dustin Ackley improve at all, then he has nowhere to go but sky high should he experience increases like those players did. Did I mention that Dustin Ackley is only 23 and spent only about one full years in the minor leagues? With repetition, his defense at second base and his bat should only get better.

He already has a major league contract that pays him over the league minimum, slotted to pay him $900,000 this year and $1.5MM in 2013. Who cares if the Mariners spend more money now? He will be real, real expensive if we let him play any longer and Dustin Ackley posts the kind of numbers that he is capable of. The second he has a season where he posts +5 WAR, we probably can’t keep Dustin Ackley without the ownership severely opening their pockets. So let’s modify that contract a bit. If the Mariners bump up his $1.5MM salary over the next two years, give him a slight increase the next year and then buy out his arbitration years, the deal may be able to make sense for both sides. Let’s assume that the Mariners offer a contact structure like so:

2012: $2MM
2013: $2MM
2014: $3.5MM (arbitration)
2015: $5.5MM (arbitration)
2016: $7MM (arbitration)
2017: $10MM (final arbitration year)
2018: $12MM (club option)
2019: $13MM (club option)
2020: $15MM (club option)

The total guaranteed amount would run to $30MM. That would pay him, on average, $5MM guaranteed per year over the next six years. The deal’s only going to save a miniscule amount of cash if the Mariners don’t get any of his free agent years. Let’s say that they offer $12MM, $13MM and $15MM for Dustin Ackley’s first three free agent years, bringing the grand total to $70MM. That’s almost twice as much as Evan Longoria’s deal, and it’s almost as much as Wade Davis and Matt Moore’s deals combined (guaranteed amounts). He’s only guaranteed six years and $30MM. That’s a pretty big guarantee for a player who has only played in 90 games, but I think he would be worth it for the Mariners, and having the club options would be very good for the Seattle Mariners and their long term future. Being able to have Dustin Ackley for the next 9 seasons would be huge.

You might be wondering why I offered him so much money. After all, most players won’t receive an offer this high without much MLB experience. Dustin Ackley has Scott Boras as his agent and he was a former number two draft choice. Scott Boras isn’t going to get out of bed for less than the $18MM guaranteed that second baseman Ben Zobrist got. Dustin Pedroia, another secnd baseman, got a six year deal for $40.5MM guaranteed with an option for $11MM in 2015 (that will be exercised no matter what). However, the difference between Dustin Ackley and Pedroia is that this bought out one of Pedroia’s free agent years and he signed it after winning the American League MVP. Boras could live with getting a player $30MM guaranteed and $40MM in options if the $30MM was not buying out any free agent years. It’s a deal that makes sense for both sides, paying him fairly without breaking the bank.

Why Mariners should extend Jesus Montero

Montero is from another planet. Well, his bat is anyways. He may never be a passable catcher (although some scouts think that he will be), but that won’t matter. We didn’t get Jesus Montero to be our catcher. If Jesus Montero can become a catcher, he’s only that much more valuable. Jesus Montero doesn’t have as much of an argument as Dustin Ackley does. No, Jesus Montero was never drafted second over all — he was an international free agent. Jesus Montero isn’t a good fielder at catcher, like Dustin Ackley surprisingly was last year at second base. He also isn’t represented by Scott Boras, he’s represented by ACES. ACES doesn’t have an awful tract record. They’re about the second or third best agency, battling with Greg Genske for who is second or third — ACES made more in 2011, but Genske has a lot more long term contracts than ACES does. ACES highest paid client last year was David Wright at $14MM last year. Sixteen different agencies/agents had at least one player that was paid at least $14MM last year. In total, ACES had $131.03MM in total contracts for 2011, while Scott Boras was able to have his clients total a whopping $282.88MM last year. Boras already has his players set to earn $157MM in 2013, while ACES is near the bottom at $17MM. They’re simply in another league. Boras can get long term extensions and ACES can’t. Dustin Pedroia is represented by ACES, so they have been willing to extend pre-arbitration players in the past.

Jesus Montero is likely more of a risk than Ackley. We’re not sure that he can ever stick as a catcher. If he doesn’t, he’s headed for a logjam at first base or designated hitter. That’s good from a contractual standpoint, but can you justify guaranteeing a player money without assurance that he can stick at his position (or any position)? He has been a top prospect according to MLB.com and Baseball America the past few years, but other than that, there’s not much to say that he is a sure thing. His stint with the Yankees last September was nothing short of excellent, but it was one month. Ackley hit .308/.360/.516 in July of last year, but hit only .219/.296/.302. That’s not supposed to be a knock on Ackley, but I’m just pointing out that players have good months and bad months, and over the course of a season, they will even out.

Jesus Montero will have an above average bat. He’s more likely to have one than not at least. He has .300, 30 homer power according to scouts. That’s not something that you see every day. Jesus Montero has an opposite field approach that could work in Safeco Field. Jesus Montero will be expensive if he is successful. We don’t want that. Let’s see what I think makes sense in terms of a Jesus Montero extension with the Mariners. He won’t be arbitration eligible until 2016 and doesn’t already have a clause in his contract to pay him above league minimum. That gives the Mariners a little more flexibility with Jesus Montero.

2012: $1MM
2013: $1.25MM
2014: $1.75MM
2015: $3MM (arbitration)
2016: $4MM (arbitration)
2017: $5.5MM (final arbitration year)
2018: $7.5MM (club option)
2019: $9MM (club option)
2020: $11MM (club option)

Jesus Montero’s extension would take the form of Evan Longoria’s. Jesus Montero were both premiere hitting prospects, but Longoria was the better regarded prospect. Evan Longoria was the #2 prospect by Baseball America the year he signed his extension. Jesus Montero was the number three prospect, but will probably be a little bit lower this year. Jesus Montero’s total guaranteed amount would be $16.5MM, with $27.5MM in club options, running the total amount to $44MM. As I said, the proposed extension for Jesus Montero is very closely related to Longoria’s deal. It’s one that ACES and Montero would likely both be happy with, and if Jesus Montero proves to be a bust, $16.5MM over 6 years, or $2.75MM per year, is nothing that will cripple the team.

Conclusions

The Mariners would be nuts to not consider extending Dustin Ackley and/or Jesus Montero. Heck, if they extended one of them, it may even make the other more willing to sign, as they will know that the Mariners are planning to build a successful team around them. Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley are probably the closest things that the Mariners have in terms of a “sure thing” player. If neither Dustin Ackley or Jesus Montero can become a formidable bat for the Mariners, I would be extremely surprised. If they signed both Ackley and Montero, the total guaranteed would be just under $50MM for 12 total years of playing time, and all six would be together. Should Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero become the big bats that they are expected to, the Mariners will have six-nine years of a force in the middle of the lineup, with at least three of the years with Felix Hernandez atop the rotation. They’ll also have more than enough opportunities to lock up their young pitchers who are on such brilliant paths, such as Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. Even Erasmo Ramirez will likely be a solid major league pitcher — closer to Wade Davis than Matt Moore — but a contract like Davis’ for Ramirez would make a lot of sense. The Mariners have a lot on their plate for the next few years with such a bright system. If they fail to extend some of these players, though, they may be in for a bumpy ride.

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